ABSTRACT
Purpose@#We previously developed learning models for predicting the need for intensive care and oxygen among patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Here, we aimed to prospectively validate the accuracy of these models. @*Materials and Methods@#Probabilities of the need for intensive care [intensive care unit (ICU) score] and oxygen (oxygen score) were calculated from information provided by hospitalized COVID-19 patients (n=44) via a web-based application. The performance of baseline scores to predict 30-day outcomes was assessed. @*Results@#Among 44 patients, 5 and 15 patients needed intensive care and oxygen, respectively. The area under the curve of ICU score and oxygen score to predict 30-day outcomes were 0.774 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.614–0.934] and 0.728 (95% CI:0.559–0.898), respectively. The ICU scores of patients needing intensive care increased daily by 0.71 points (95% CI: 0.20–1.22) after hospitalization and by 0.85 points (95% CI: 0.36–1.35) after symptom onset, which were significantly different from those in individuals not needing intensive care (p=0.002 and <0.001, respectively). Trends in daily oxygen scores overall were not markedly different; however, when the scores were evaluated within <7 days after symptom onset, the patients needing oxygen showed a higher daily increase in oxygen scores [1.81 (95% CI: 0.48–3.14) vs. -0.28 (95% CI: 1.00–0.43), p=0.007]. @*Conclusion@#Our machine learning models showed good performance for predicting the outcomes of COVID-19 patients and could thus be useful for patient triage and monitoring.
ABSTRACT
Background/Aims@#Acute eosinophilic pneumonia (AEP) is common among military smokers; however, bronchoscopy is required for the diagnosis. We aimed to derive and validate a scoring system to diagnose AEP without bronchoscopy. @*Methods@#We conducted a retrospective study including patients diagnosed with AEP or any other pneumonia among military smokers hospitalized in the Armed Forces Capital Hospital from 15 November 2016 through 25 December 2019. The patients were divided into derivation and validation groups according to their admission day. Patient symptoms, laboratory findings, and computed tomography findings were candidate variables. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to calculate the scores for each variable. @*Results@#Among 414 patients, AEP was confirmed in 54 of 279 patients (19.4%) in the derivation group and in 18 of 135 patients (13.3%) in the validation group. Ten variables were selected using LASSO regression: new-onset or a recently increased smoking (≤ 4 weeks) (8 points), interlobular septal thickening (5 points), absence of sputum (3 points), ground glass opacity (3 points), acute onset (≤ 3 days) (2 points), dyspnea (2 points), chest pain (2 points), leukocytosis (2 points), bronchovascular bundle thickening (2 points), and bilateral involvement (2 points). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the score to diagnose AEP was 0.997 (95% confidence interval, 0.992 to 1.000) in the derivation group and 0.985 (95% confidence interval, 0.965 to 1.000) in the validation group. @*Conclusions@#We introduce a scoring system that can distinguish AEP from other types of pneumonia in military smokers without the need for bronchoscopy.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Roflumilast is the only approved oral phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitor for the treatment of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in patients with chronic bronchitis and a history of frequent exacerbations. The purpose of this study was to examine the incidence of adverse effects associated with roflumilast treatment in a real-world setting. Further, we compared the incidence of adverse effects and the discontinuation rate among patients receiving different doses. METHODS: We identified all outpatients diagnosed with COPD at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital between May 2011 and September 2016 and retrospectively reviewed their medical records. Roflumilast was prescribed to patients in doses of 500 µg and 250 µg. RESULTS: A total of 269 COPD patients were prescribed roflumilast in our hospital during the study period. Among them, 178 patients were treated with 500 µg and 91 patients were treated with 250 µg. The incidence of adverse effects was 38.2% in the 500 µg group and 25.3% in the 250 µg group (p=0.034). The discontinuation rate of roflumilast was 41.6% (n=74) in the 500 µg group and 23.1% (n=21) in the 250 µg group (p=0.003). When adjusted by age, sex, smoking status, and lung function, 500 µg dose was significantly associated with the discontinuation of roflumilast (odds ratio, 2.87; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: There was a lower incidence of adverse effects and discontinuation among patients treated with 250 µg compared with 500 µg dose. Further studies regarding the optimal dose of roflumilast are required.